What Would Happen If The Oil Runs Out?
Oil Industry — By admin on June 18, 2010 at 7:51 pmWe are addicted to oil. It is the life blood of all industrial economies, powering our cars, factories, airplanes and just about everything else.
This BBC documentary takes a troubling look at a possible future, our world in 2016 when oil production has peaked and prices have skyrocketed. The warning signs have been clear for a long time, why aren’t we doing anything about the coming end of cheap oil?
“It is 2016 and the world is in crisis. Global supplies of oil cannot keep up with soaring demand and the price of petrol is going through the roof. The oil companies are in a desperate race to find any remaining oil reserves but what happens if there is no more out there?”
Tags: 2016, Crude Oil, Peak Oil
4 Comments
It appears that this is only part of the documentary. I don’t see a link to next part and this just stops.
The playlist was incomplete, I added the missing parts. Enjoy the rest of the film.
Thanks.
If Oil Runs Out – BBC Documentary Drama
http://www.documentarystream.com/what-would-happen-if-the-oil-runs-out/
This was a well done documentary drama from BBC that time lines pretty accurately what the United States and the rest of the world can expect as the oil consuming industrial world approaches the year 2016 and the beginning in the spike of oil prices.
The writing and acting was very good as it showed how real people would react to the unfolding crisis. The older parents were especially well written and believable. I relate very closely to the older father. I discovered the concept of Peak Oil in 2006 when I was helping my son do some research on prehistoric animals for a report he had to do.
A Google search on fossils and prehistoric animals brought up links on fossil fuels that then lead me to an article on Peak Oil. It was the early spring of 2006 when I first became aware of Peak Oil. Until that time I had had no idea that the world was running out of oil. It was extremely scarey to first discover that the world I was enjoying in 2006 would not be there for my kids in 2030. In fact in only 14 years time in 2020 the world would be well on its way into the decline of the oil age.
The article that really woke me up to the danger was
Life After the Oil Crash – http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
First released in 2005, I read this article in the spring of 2006.
By the summer of 2008 everything this article had predicted was coming true with the artificial spike in oil prices from $67 a barrel to $147 a barrel. Gasoline prices increased from $2.23 to $4.99 in about 6 months. I took photos at the gas stations during this time to show the rise.
This doubling of oil prices immediately caused the shut down of the US auto industry, followed by the collapse of the airlines, then the trucking industry, followed by the mortgage industry (which really had started everything), then the construction industry came to a stop, the banking industry became insolvent because too many businesses and home owners could not repay back debts, business loans stopped, home mortgage loans stopped, and then the ripple effect went out through the entire US economy.
Having lived through the artificially created 2008 and 2009 oil spike in the United States I know that come the year 2016 the same scenario will take place for real.
The only problem I had with the documentary “If Oil Runs Out” is that the gasoline prices are too low going into 2016. The prices at the pump are $3.39 I believe and then climb to $4.49.
The price of gasoline in the United States in 2010 is now $2.67 (East) to $3.39 (West). So we are already at the starting price point of gasoline for the movie in 2016. Six years from now in 2016 the price of gasoline I estimate will already be approaching $4.99 to $5.99 per gallon. This means that a barrel of oil will be approaching $147 a barrel. Today in November 2010, a barrel of oil is $90. A jump of $57 over the course of 6 years is not unreasonable at all, factoring in inflation as well.
The world is now at Peak Oil. Peak Oil was reached in June 2006. Peak Oil is the maximum amount of oil that can be pulled out of the ground to meet worldwide demand. For the last 4 years from 2006 to 2010 the world have been at the top of the Peak Oil curve. There has just been sufficient oil to meet worldwide demand.
That is now going to be changing in 2011.
In the year 2011 the world will begin its descent down the Peak Oil curve. As soon as this begins there will be insufficient oil resources to meet worldwide demand. At this time the price of oil will begin to rise more rapidly as demand will outstrip supply.
For more information and the graphs on what to expect this is a very good article to read.
Life After the Oil Crash – http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
In the year 2008-2009 oil prices doubled from $67 a barrel to $147 a barrel, driving gasoline prices up to $4.99 in about 6 months. We can expect this again going into 2012.
Another very good article on this site is, Dirty Oil – Alberta’s Tar Sands.
What I found very enlightening about this documentary is that Canada has become the new Saudi Arabia for the United States. The reason for this is that the United States is loosing both Mexico and Saudi Arabia as oil producers.
Both Mexico’s and Saudi Arabia’s oil fields are now very mature and are being depleted at an even faster rate. To make matters worse both China and India are going after what ever oil is left in Saudi Arabia.
The Alberta Tar Sands will provide the United States with sufficient oil reserves for the next 10 years until 2020. After 2020 there will simply be insufficient oil reserves to keep the United States gasoline powered economy running.
On aspect of the “If Oil Runs Out – BBC Documentary Drama” I loved were the huge SUVs that the Americans were driving around. The same is true in Canada as well. During the gasoline spike of 2008 & 2009 these vehicles suddenly became obsolete. They could not be driven and they could not be sold. How short is the American memory? Just one year after the stabilization of oil prices back to $2.67 families are once again buying those large SUVs and trucks. It simply amazed me.
99% of Americans and Canadians do not realize how much danger they are in with regards to Peak oil. Even worse they do not want to know or acknowledge. Women are especially susceptible to block out any bad news because it scares them too much.
All known oil reservoirs around the world are now in decline at a rate of 7% to 8% a year. This 7% to 8% decline in oil being pumped out of the ground will quickly rise to 33% within 5 to 10 years. 2015 to 2020. This includes the United States, Mexico, Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait etc.
As an example one only has to look at past United States oil fields that declined rapidly after their Oil Peak and then ran dry. For a more recent example one only has to look at Mexico and the recent collapse of their Cantarell oil reservoir.
So eager were the Mexican oil companies to make as much money as they could that they literally pumped their Cantarell Oil Field complex into a catastrophic collapse. Cantarell is now on a year by year decline of 36% or higher as of 2008.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field
Current production of oil in 2009 had fallen to 772,000 barrels per day (123,000 m3/d) vs 1.16 million barrels per day (180,000 m3/d) in 1981. A drop of 66.6%.
Mexico and the Cantarell oil field complex is a very important source of oil for the United States. However Mexican oil fields are now in permanent decline after having passed over the top of their Peak Oil curve in 2005.
http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2010/01/mexican-oil-production-continues-to-dive/
“At this point in time, anyone who knows anything about Mexican oil production knows it is declining rapidly, particularly production from the supergiant Cantarell complex.
Declining production from the Cantarell complex will strongly influence Mexico’s future oil production since Cantarell produces such a large percentage (~66% in 2004) of Mexico’s oil. If production from the Cantarell complex starts declining in 2006, it’s realistic to expect Mexico’s oil production to decline as well.”
With the Mexican oil fields in catastrophic decline in 2008 the United States has no alternative but to turn its sights on Canada to fulfill its energy needs.
However there is only sufficient Alberta Tar Sands oil to support their part of the US economy for 10 years or until 2020.
Between the years 2020 and 2030 oil reservoirs will be drained to such a degree around the world that there will be an insufficient supply to maintain a country’s oil based economy. At this time between 2015 and 2020 oil prices are going to begin to skyrocket.
The prediction time line in the “If Oil Runs Out – BBC Documentary Drama” is very real. This is what is going to happen only it is going to be much worse.
When the price of oil begins to skyrocket one will begin to see a cascade collapse of not only the United States economy but the worldwide economy. 2008 and 2009 were an experimental run through to see what would happen if oil prices spiked from $67 a barrel to $147 a barrel.
This doubling of oil prices will immediately cause the shut down of the US auto industry, followed by the collapse of the airlines, then the trucking industry, followed by the mortgage industry, the banking industry will become insolvent because too many businesses and home owners can not repay back debts, business loans will stop, home mortgage loans will stop, construction loans will stop, the construction industry will come to a stop and then the ripple effect will cascade through the entire US, Canadian and worldwide economy.
The spike in oil prices in 2008 and 2009 was artificial caused by derivatives on oil futures activated by the collapse of the mortgage industry created by Lehman & Brothers, other US Banks and other Banks around the world playing the same game.
Between 2015 and 2020 the spike in oil prices is going to be very real and it WILL NOT be reversible.
Between 2015 and 2020 developed countries around the world can expect the same sequence of events to occur again with the collapse of the auto industries, airline industries, trucking industries, the petro chemical industry, and housing industry, the banking industry and then the collapse of the entire economy. Once the worldwide banking system goes, then everything else goes into bankruptcy as the economy comes to a complete stop.
You see the banking industry has its foundation on cheap energy. Today that cheap energy is oil and natural gas. By the 2030 the oil age will be over. There will be insufficient oil supplies available at an affordable price to maintain an industrialized country’s oil based infrastructure.
“If Oil Runs Out – BBC Documentary Drama” mentions that 4,000 petro-chemical products are created from oil. These industries are going away because the price of oil will make them too expensive.
Another important point highlighted by, “If Oil Runs Out – BBC Documentary Drama”.
Making matters even worse for the United States, Canada and other developed countries is the rapid growth of China and India at 7% to 8% a year. All of those Chinese people now want to live just like Americans and Canadians and other developed countries. There is only one problem, the world is now at the top of the Peak Oil Curve and the descent down the curve begins in 2011.
China and India have a combined population of 2 billion people vs 330 million for the United States and Canada. Can you imagine how quickly a small fraction of 2 billion people could drain the rest of the world’s oil reservoirs?
There is simply insufficient oil on the planet earth to sustain our oil based civilization past the year 2030.
And when the oil goes, the worldwide banking system goes, followed by a complete collapse of economic systems of developed countries worldwide.
We have already lived through a small test of what is coming in 2008 and 2009. Beginning in 2015 the spiking price in oil will be very real and irreversible.
For more information on what to expect this is a very good article to read.
Life After the Oil Crash – http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
For the next 10 years the United States is depending on Canada and the Alberta Tar Sands to keep its economy running until it can try and do a switch to another form of energy. However with only 10 years to do the switch and every single American car using gasoline it is very unlikely to happen.
The United States economy is coming to end one way or another between 2015 and 2030. Neither the American politicians nor the American people have the will or desire to move away from gasoline powered cars. And this is true for Canada as well.
For an appropriate analogy the US and Canadian economy is driving itself off a self made cliff of gasoline powered cars and a banking system built on cheap energy that will not be cheap anymore beginning in 2015.
And the United States is not alone. Canadians, Britains, Australians, Europeans, Russians, China, India and every other developed country using a gasoline powered infrastructure is in the same boat. They will all fail together between the period of 2015 and 2030 if dramatic changes are not made to the vehicles people drive, the trucks that deliver food and other goods, the planes that fly people and cargo around, the ships that deliver international goods, and the banking system that is built on a foundation of cheap energy for home and business loans.
A cascade banking failure around the world caused by the end of cheap energy will literally put hundreds of millions of people out of work within a few years. A small version of this has already happened in 2008 and 2009. In 2015 it will be very real, by 2030 the world we all know today will not exist.
Is there a solution to the banking system problem?
Yes.
Can the unemployment of hundreds of millions of people around the world be avoided between 2015 and 2030.
Yes.
In January 2010, Arnold Vinette came up with a solution to re-value the money supplies of countries all over the world. This solution was initially created for Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and the Russian Government to stop the violence in their Northern Caucus area do to excessive levels of unemployment. The white paper was then shared with American President Barack Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper as a tool to help deal with the massive unemployment expected between 2015 and 2030.
The beauty of the proposed changes is that they are very easily to implement and are both energy independent and mineral resource independent.
Arnold Vinette
Ottawa, Canada
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The Financial concept of “Work Credits”
The Financial concept of “Work Credits” and how they will work to avoid massive worldwide unemployment, poverty and homelessness between 2020 and 2030.
Under a “Work Credit” based society a country’s population is valued as its most important natural resource. People are assigned a value that becomes the basis of a country’s money supply. People are paid to do work that contributes to their community, city, state and country, what ever it may be at their particular stage in life.
(The money supply can also add other desired elements such as gold, silver, diamonds, gas, oil, uranium, rare earth minerals, coca beans, food or water as determined by an international council. However for the purpose of this comment people will be used as the sole basis of a country’s money supply.)
People who are unable to find work with existing companies or the government will be paid to create their own entrepreneurial projects. Between 2020 and 2030 many existing companies dependent on cheap fossil fuels will disappear and new ones will be created to take their place.
“Work Credits” are paid out in accordance to the demand of the service required. People’s natural greed will fill positions in society that pay more “Work Credits”.
There are always sufficient funds in a country to pay people to do work that benefits their community, city, state and country, because the people are the basis for their money supply.
The concept of “Work Credits” eliminates unemployment, homelessness and poverty in the country.
It is impossible to have unemployment in a country whose financial structure is changed to “Work Credits” because the very existence of people in a country is the basis for their money supply.
At the moment there is no retirement age in a “Work Credit” society. People must continue to work until the day they die. The benefit is that there is always money to pay people to do work that contributes to their community, city, state and country, what ever it may be at their particular stage in life.
Children are paid to go to school from kindergarten to grade 12, and to continue their education by going to college or university. A child’s job is to go to school, learn and do their homework. An educated individual is a country’s greatest asset and the financial concept of “Work Credits” now acknowledges this. One parent or grand parent may stay home and be paid to watch their children / grandchildren from 0 to 4 years. This is their job to benefit their community.
People are the only things that need money in a modern economy, so it only makes sense that people become the basis of their country’s money supply. How can it be any other way? Countries who adopt the financial concept of “Work Credits” are the countries that will lead the world in productivity and security between 2020 and 2030.
Under a “Work Credit” based financial system the country’s money supply is valued independently of energy and other natural resources. This means that a country will always have a sufficient money supply to pay its citizens to do work to benefit their community, city, state and country independent of energy supplies and mineral resources.
To learn more these white papers have been written and distributed to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, American President Barack Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Governments worldwide recognize that changes must be made to the current financial systems of developed countries or else they will collapse by 2030. This was proven to be true during the oil crisis of 2008 and 2009. For reference: Life after the oil crash: http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Work Credits – A New Global Currency
2 titles – 1 English, 1 Russian
“Work Credits – A New Global Currency” introduces a new global financial instrument that will help governments worldwide sidestep the collapse of world financial markets when the oil crash occurs in 2015 – 2030. This document has already been delivered to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, American President Barack Obama, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and UNESCO – United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. This document outlines how unemployment, homelessness and poverty can be eradicated around the world, regardless of energy dependency on oil and natural gas. The solution is much simpler than most people may think and is applicable in every community, city and country on Earth
English Version
http://www.ereadable.com/scripts/browse.asp?ref=1414904665
Russian Version
http://www.ereadable.com/scripts/browse.asp?ref=1414904673
Arnold Vinette